FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 31 of the 2015-16 season doesn’t put much stock in anonymously sourced talk about a show’s prospects to return next season.
FOX scripted average through April 24: 1.3
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Minority Report (O)||Canceled||0.71||0.47|
|Second Chance (O)||😥||0.65||0.50|
|The Grinder (O)||😦 😦||0.77||0.59|
|Sleepy Hollow (O)||😦 😦||0.82||0.62|
|Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life (O)||😥||0.9||0.69|
|Grandfathered (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.97||0.75|
|Family Guy (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.52||1.17|
|New Girl (O)||Renewed||1.17||0.90|
|Scream Queens (O)||Renewed||1.06||0.70|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.05||0.81|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||Renewed||1.19||0.92|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.83||1.41|
As the TV season nears its close, the chatter about which series still left hanging will be renewed is growing. Prominent in that chatter is talk of “Sleepy Hollow” getting another season despite weak ratings and despite killing one of its two leads in the season finale.
But all the on-background sources in the world don’t change the fact that the show’s ratings are substandard. Those with an interest in talking up the show’s prospects can’t change the fact that it got above a 1.0 rating exactly three times this season.
FOX may be desperate enough for programming next season that “Sleepy Hollow” gets a reprieve and makes this prediction incorrect. But the Bear isn’t betting on it.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.