FOX scripted average through Oct. 18: 1.63
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Minority Report (O)||😥||0.85||0.52|
|Sleepy Hollow (O)||😦 😦||0.93||0.57|
|The Grinder (O)||😦 😦||1.13||0.69|
|Grandfathered (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.23||0.75|
|Bones (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.27||0.78|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.28||0.79|
|Scream Queens (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.33||0.82|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.48||0.91|
|Family Guy (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.53||0.94|
|Gotham||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.55||0.95|
|Rosewood (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.9||1.17|
|Empire (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||5.5||3.37|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.03||0.63|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.85||1.13|
The four-week trend line in adults 18-49 for “Scream Queens” looks like this: 1.7, 1.4, 1.2, 1.0. So why is it a safe bet for renewal?
Because FOX is going to have bigger problems elsewhere on the schedule. “Scream Queens” sits in the middle of the network’s ratings pack — in fact, factoring out “Empire’s” outsize numbers, and “SQ” is right on the average of FOX’s other scripted series. It’s also one of the network’s youngest-skewing shows. Add in the network’s long-running relationship with Ryan Murphy and you’ve got a likely renewal.
Of note last week, “Rosewood” got a full-season order from FOX. That wasn’t a surprise, however, so its status remains unchanged.
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.