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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 20, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Fringe (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.44|
|Allen Gregory||😥 😥||0.75|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||0.88|
|Raising Hope||😐 😐 😐||0.93|
|Terra Nova||😐 😐 😐||0.94|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.02|
|House||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.04|
Raising Hope was a rare success last season among Fox’s recent live action comedy rookies. It clearly outshone Running Wilde, which was canceled at the end of the season. But now with New Girl, Fox has another level of sitcom success to look to, one to which Raising Hope is a distant second. In a schedule like CBS, NBC or ABC’s with a bevy of sitcom slots available, Raising Hope’s recent ratings of about 90% of Fox’s overall scripted average would make it likely to be renewed.
But the problem for Raising Hope is that Fox has only two slots in their schedule for half hour live action sitcoms, and New Girl is going to keep one of them, so Fox has three choices (1) premiere no new sitcoms next fall, (2) expand or somehow juggle (like put live action back on Sundays) their sitcom time on their schedule, (3) cancel Raising Hope.
(1) is highly unlikely, and (2) is possible, but a bit of a stretch. Because of that uncertainty, I make Raising Hope’s chances of renewal for a third season currently a “toss up”.
The ratings say that Fringe is likely to be canceled. The ratings said that last year too, when Warner Brothers likely gave the show away to Fox to get a fourth season for syndication. Will Warner Brothers cut the price again for a fifth season? Would Fox want it even if they did? The answers to both questions is likely no, but in this case I am once bitten, twice shy, and will move the show no lower than a “toss up” for renewal next season. Robert is not nearly so shy.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.