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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from September 15-December 14, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|A to Z||canceled, airing remaining episodes||0.58|
|Constantine (F)||canceled, airing remaining episodes||0.67|
|Bad Judge||canceled, airing remaining episodes||0.72|
|About A Boy||😥 😥||0.81|
|Grimm (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.85|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😐 😐 😐||0.96|
|Marry Me||😥 😥||1.02|
|State of Affairs||😐 😐 😐||1.17|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.25|
Bob Greenblatt at NBC has been almost as good to the bear this Fall as was ex-Fox’s Kevin Reilly.
The complete implosion of the NBC Fall sitcoms provided the bear with easy predictions for About A Boy & Marry Me even though they followed The Voice, and even easier predictions for Bad Judge and A to Z.
The crazy fan internet echo chamber continues to dream up scenarios under which Constantine will be the first (non-limited series) Fall rookie show to be renewed after not being given a follow on to its initial 13 episode order. The cancellation bear continues to be amused.
The only NBC show causing the bear any real question well into the season is The Mysteries of Laura, but he’s hopeful he’ll move off the “toss up” prediction early in 2015.
Four episodes in, State Of Affairs’ fate still hangs in the balance, but a few airings in early 2015 should clarify it.
How can Constantine be canceled, random people on the internet/the producers/Warner Brothers/some guy holding a sign on the corner say it’s still very much alive? Read this.
How is Chicago Fire certain to be renewed already? Read this.
While we wait for the return of Bubble Watch, here are some NBC notes from Tom Shaw:NBC finally unveiled their Spring schedule, and the delay sure looks like NBC trying to figure out their least worst plan.
I had to be reminded of it myself: With Parks & Rec ending and About a Boy likely done, NBC’s most veteran comedy is the previously summer-slotted Undateable. It’ll be tough to forget it now, as a general lack of comedy options means Undateable is getting the Tuesday Voice lead-in. If any NBC comedy can survive into next season, it will be Undateable.
Speaking of summer shows, The Night Shift gets the Monday post-Voice slot. It’s hard to say if this is internal hope for the show or just lack of better options, as…
Odyssey gets the Sunday@10 slot, but not until A.D. gets going on April 5th, Easter Sunday. Sure, you could argue that this is the baffling broadcast scheduling logic we frequently see when Cable knockoffs get a timeslot while the original is off the air (“People love Mad Men, of course they’ll watch Pan Am then!”), going after the Homeland audience, but the late start date and seemingly incompatible lead-in have me regarding this as a looooooong shot.
Allegiance, by contrast, keeping the Thursday@10 slot after The Blacklist, does not have me writing off its chances, as NBC (apparently) legitimately believes The Blacklist can hold up their entire Thursday schedule. We’ll see how realistic that view is post-Super Bowl.
About a Boy and Marry Me have no spot on the schedule with a number of episodes left on the shelf, if you still had any doubts as to their chances…
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.