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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-December 8, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Welcome To The Family*||canceled||0.52|
|Sean Saves The World||😳||0.68|
|Dracula (F)||😥 😥||0.71|
|Parks & Recreation||😐 😐 😐||0.73|
|The Michael J. Fox Show||😳||0.78|
|Parenthood||😐 😐 😐||0.81|
|Revolution||😐 😐 😐||0.92|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.09|
One of the cancellation bear’s two big prediction misses* last season, Hannibal could do no better than a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating for its final four episodes during the Spring of 2013, about 70% of NBC’s Spring scripted ratings average. The bear gave it just a 30% chance of renewal in the final reckoning, and yet it was renewed.
How’d that happen? Best guess is that the international production made the cost to NBC so low that it could take a flyer on a second season, even with those woeful ratings.
Could the same happen to Dracula?
Perhaps, but sadly impossible for the bear to guess accurately. Unlike Hannibal, in addition to the non-US production companies, Dracula is co-produced by NBC Universal. Does that mean it’s not the low cost deal that Hannibal was? Or does that mean NBC is more likely to hang onto it given disappointing ratings? Sadly, those things are hidden from the bear, and the rest of the public.
Was last Friday’s 1.1 rating a fluke? or a sign that the bear needs to change his Dracula prediction? We won’t know anytime soon, the next new Dracula episode airs on January 3.
*the other being The Carrie Diaries.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.