Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewNbcShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 27, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck (F)||final season||0.49|
|The Playboy Club||canceled||0.67|
|Community||😐 😐 😐||0.85|
|Grimm (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93|
|Parks & Recreation||1.05|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.11|
|Up All Night||awaiting new timeslot ratings||1.14|
|Whitney||awaiting new timeslot ratings||1.20|
Fans have been whining about Harry’s Law’s Wednesday 9pm time slot all season.
Was the time slot the reason for its absolutely woeful (even for NBC) adults 18-49 ratings? Perhaps.
Will its relocation to Sunday produce a ratings miracle that will save the show from the cancellation bear? Highly unlikely, but that’s the only straw fans can grasp for at this point, so let the grasping begin!
Why isn’t Harry’s Law prediction being withheld pending its new ratings on Sunday like Up All Night & Whitney (see below)? Unlike those two shows, which would be likely to be renewed based on their Fall ratings, Harry’s Law relative ratings are so low that it would have to increase by 30% or more on Sunday just to get to the “toss up” range. That is highly unlikely.
If Grimm can maintain its recent relative ratings levels on Friday it will remain more likely to be renewed than canceled.
Community fans may have freaked out when it wasn’t on the network’s mid-season schedule. It’s certainly not good news for the show, but NBC insists that the show will return an at unspecified future date, and Sony has given sitcoms away to get a fourth season before, and I think they may do it again, and so the show will drop no lower than a “toss up” for renewal for next season.
Up All Night and Whitney will be relocated in the NBC schedule starting in mid-season. Their ratings in their new timeslots will be far more relevant to their renewal chances than their ratings this Fall (call it the Outsourced lesson), and so their predictions are suspended until then. We’ll have to wait until January to reassess their chances.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.