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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 5, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|A to Z*||canceled||0.52|
|About A Boy*||😳||0.72|
|State of Affairs*||😳||0.87|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😐 😐 😐||0.89|
|American Odyssey||😐 😐 😐||0.98|
|One Big Happy||😐 😐 😐||1.09|
|The Night Shift||😐 😐 😐||1.12|
|Parks & Recreation*||final season complete||1.17|
|Law & Order: SVU||renewed||1.19|
|Parenthood*||final season complete||1.30|
|Undateable||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.31|
|AD: The Bible Continues||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.89|
The cancellation bear thought that A.D.: The Bible Continues was a one and done mini-series, but his friend @TVTomShaw set him straight. He noted that the producers are planning for more seasons (contingent on good ratings, of course). While the bear is starting his prediction for ADTBC as likely renewed, given that the original The Bible aired two seasons ago, we might not see a follow on next season.
American Odyssey premiered with a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating. The cancellation bear got ahead of himself, and tweeted that it was destined to be bearchow.
As absolutely low as that is, it’s pretty close to NBC’s 2015 ratings average, and even though post-premiere ratings declines are likely, they’re not certain, so the bear will instead begin his prediction for the show at a “toss up”.
How can Constantine be canceled, random people on the internet/the producers/Warner Brothers/some guy holding a sign on the corner say it’s still very much alive? Read this.
Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:I admit, for whatever reason I thought A.D.: The Bible Continues was a one-off mini-series – I didn’t even mention it here. But the marketing has labeled it as “Season 1”, and if it holds up anywhere near the premiere, it will be NBC’s first (and possibly only) freshman renewal, even if it is brought back as just an Easter timed, short order series.The Vikings lightning did not strike twice, as American Odyssey premiered in the low 1s. Anything like the usual post-premiere drops almost all freshman shows see will put this in clear cancellation territory.The Mysteries of Laura had an unhappy Easter, as both the ratings have not improved without a competing CBS procedural, and A.D. took over as NBC’s most likely renewal. NBC would likely have to have a terrible crop of new pilots to bring this back in Fall (if ever).
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.