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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – February 8, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|A to Z*||canceled||0.52|
|About A Boy||😳||0.75|
|State of Affairs||😳||0.86|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😐 😐 😐||0.97|
|Parks & Recreation||final season||1.21|
|Law & Order: SVU||renewed||1.25|
|Parenthood*||final season complete||1.30|
While Allegiance’s premiere 1.1 adults 18-49 rating is about average for NBC 2015 scripted shows, the cancellation bear is starting his prediction for Allegiance at “likely canceled” because premiering at the average rating isn’t an indicator of future success, and he needed something new for this week’s headline.
After a flurry of NBC drama renewals last week, the bear was ready to move his prediction for The Mysteries of Laura down to “likely canceled” as well, but the fact that he wanted to get Allegiance in the headline this week bumped it. There’s always next week.
Does the fact that Constantine is being publicly shopped around by Warner Brothers (reportedly to Syfy) finally convince it’s belligerently delusional fans it was canceled long ago, and that they’ve been played by the Warner Brothers PR Jedi since then?
How can Constantine be canceled, random people on the internet/the producers/Warner Brothers/some guy holding a sign on the corner say it’s still very much alive? Read this.
From Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:
The Blacklist had an eventful, if not necessarily successful, week. First, the post-Super Bowl airing was one of the lowest rated shows there on record (especially when adjusting for start time).
Then NBC renewed The Blacklist, Grimm, and the Dick Wolf empire (Law & Order: SVU, Chicago Fire, & Chicago P.D.). Aside from Dick Wolf and NBC coming to terms on SVU this early, the real surprise was the timing – the implication being that NBC was less than confident about The Blacklist’s performance on an increasingly competitive night and wanted to get out ahead of any potential bad news.
Their worries were somewhat warranted, as The Blacklist premiered on Thursday with a rating near its lowest. It is still NBC’s top rated scripted show by a mile (again, on the highest ad rate day of the week), but it is no longer a phenomenon.
(The larger point is post-Super Bowl bumps don’t do anything. You want to premiere a new show afterwards, you may have some success, but networks are better off trying to maximize ad revenue with their most popular show than hoping for additional exposure for a younger show. We’ll see which way CBS (next up on the rotation) jumps with The Big Bang Theory vs. Scorpion in May.)
Allegiance found no help from The Blacklist, premiering directly in cancellation territory. We’ll see how much faith NBC has in Aquarius by seeing how long Allegiance runs before getting pulled.
One show that wasn’t in NBC’s renewal pile? The Mysteries of Laura. While I said the ratings were close enough to average to probably get renewed, that was only through Fall. The ratings vs. the Spring competition have dropped it to “longshot” status.
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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.