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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from September 15-November 30, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|A to Z||canceled, airing remaining episodes||0.57|
|Constantine (F)||canceled, airing remaining episodes||0.67|
|Bad Judge||canceled, airing remaining episodes||0.69|
|About A Boy||😥 😥||0.82|
|Grimm (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.82|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😐 😐 😐||0.95|
|Marry Me||😥 😥||1.04|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.22|
|State of Affairs||😐 😐 😐||1.22|
Constantine has been canceled. NBC opted to not pick up the back 9 episode order for the rookie drama. In recent memory, every Fall premiere rookie show intended for a full season that was ended after 13 or fewer episodes (in a non WGA strike season) was canceled.
Against that reality, the PR Jedi at Warner Brothers have mounted an impressive (most impressive) mind tricks campaign that has maintained the delusions of many of Constantine’s desperate fans in their internet echo chamber.
Here’s a sample of the mind tricks in the Constantine fan echo chamber:
- “It has the full support of the network!” – Like all shows still on the air, always.
- “It’s still in production!” – Canceled rookie shows typically produce their entire 13 episode orders. This season, only Selfie & Manhattan Love Story won’t produce 13 episodes.
- “The stars were in the Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade!” – Show promotion continues until ads are no longer being sold.
The cancellation bear has moved his prediction for State Of Affairs down to a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation. That’s probably being generous given the decline in ratings for the second episode, but it wasn’t getting the headline this week, so the bear is biding his time. This was posted before the ratings for 12/1 were known.
How is Chicago Fire certain to be renewed already? Read this.
While we wait for the return of Bubble Watch, here are some NBC notes from Tom Shaw:Constantine was not given a backorder. I’ve babbled on enough about how that’s a death sentence for a Fall show, much less for a normal-cost one doing those ratings.–Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt moved to Netflix, though “moved” is more like defacto cancelled by NBC and then sold off to Netflix, who agreed to fund another batch of episodes as part of the deal. I’m going to put on my TV criticism hat and say that, in this era of smartphones, 100+ channels, & social media for all, if the only way you can “believably” construct a fish-out-of-water concept show is to have the lead be abducted for years, maybe that concept should be retired?–Parks & Recreation is getting the January double-airing treatment as The Voice filler. While that’s irrelevant for Parks in its final season, what does it mean for the rest of NBC’s comedies? After UKS’ sell-off, NBC only has (as far as I can tell) 6 Mr Robinson, 6 One Big Happy, roughly 8 Marry Me and roughly 15 About a Boys left for Spring. Does NBC just burn off MR/OBH/MM before the next Voice cycle comes back and any left over About a Boys get paired with Undateable as a late Spring/Summer hour, for NO comedy hours in late Feb/March/April?
–State of Affairs dropped 36% in Week 2. Admittedly, current events likely had an impact on the audience, but I doubt the situation improves when it doesn’t have The Voice as a lead-in. I’d keep a close watch on the situation – does it get dumped to Sundays at 10 after Sunday Night Football ends if it continues to drop?
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.