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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – March 8, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|A to Z*||canceled||0.52|
|About A Boy*||😳||0.72|
|State of Affairs*||😳||0.87|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😐 😐 😐||0.97|
|Parks & Recreation*||final season complete||1.17|
|The Night Shift||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.24|
|Law & Order: SVU||renewed||1.25|
|Parenthood*||final season complete||1.30|
It’s been clear for some time that there’s at least the potential that every new NBC show from 2014-15 will be canceled.
The cancellation bear is still holding out on the potential that The Mysteries Of Laura might be renewed. Its ratings, no matter how woeful compared to other broadcast shows, are still at NBC’s scripted average.
If Laura isn’t renewed, One Big Happy (and the bear forgot American Odyssey, thanks @AdrianSdC)
is are the last chances for the NBC rookie class of 2014-15. Stay tuned.
How can Constantine be canceled, random people on the internet/the producers/Warner Brothers/some guy holding a sign on the corner say it’s still very much alive? Read this.
Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:
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NBC finally realized things weren’t going to improve – perhaps How to Get Away With Murder exiting the field to no improvement for their lineup tipped them off – and made changes to Thursdays. The Slap has been bumped to 10pm, Allegiance has been pulled (and canceled), and The Blacklist is getting yet another hour* of Dateline for a lead-in, this one focusing on real-life crimes. Again, let’s be clear: The Blacklist is still NBC’s highest rated scripted show. But NBC specifically linking the filler replacement with The Blacklist makes me wonder if The Blacklist’s Thursday numbers aren’t getting close to triggering make-goods.
Seemingly just to silence snarky internet commentators wondering if there wasn’t a better schedule possible, NBC then announced that Aquarius and Hannibal would air on Thursdays in Summer, starting May 28th and June 4th, respectively. To be clear, this is likely the most profitable route for NBC – Friday movie premieres and other weekend activities love to advertise on Thursdays, and the networks have largely moved their Summer dramas to the night to capitalize on this (e.g. Under The Dome) – but it is hard not to view the situation as anything other than NBC writing off the rest of this regular season.
(*At some point, a renewal for Mysteries of Laura has to become almost a given, just so the Dateline producers don’t rebel at the number of hours they are being asked to fill a week.)
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.