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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – March 1, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|A to Z*||canceled||0.52|
|About A Boy*||😳||0.72|
|State of Affairs*||😳||0.87|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😐 😐 😐||0.98|
|Parks & Recreation*||final season complete||1.17|
|Law & Order: SVU||renewed||1.27|
|The Night Shift||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.29|
|Parenthood*||final season complete||1.30|
The Night Shift premiered with a 1.5 rating following the spring premiere of The Voice. On the train wreck that is NBC, that’s plenty good enough to get renewed. But if the ratings decline, the cancellation bear’s prediction will change. Stay tuned.
Historical notes: State Of Affairs premiered to a 2.2 rating, and didn’t drop below a 1.5 rating when it followed The Voice. Without The Voice, it hovered around a 1.0 rating (and fell as low as a 0.7). Given that State Of Affairs is certain #bearchow now, there’s always the potential for The Night Shift to follow.
How can Constantine be canceled, random people on the internet/the producers/Warner Brothers/some guy holding a sign on the corner say it’s still very much alive? Read this.
Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:
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One of the year’s most noticeable trends was the networks giving their Fall Freshman hits early renewals. The only network that couldn’t join in on that parade was NBC, as none of their candidates were guaranteed renewals. The Spring premieres haven’t started off any better, as Allegiance is DOA and The Slap will likely only stay on the air for lack of alternatives.
Even worse, that lack of success has started to work backwards into the Sophomore class: (though Chicago PD and The Blacklist have already been renewed,) About a Boy has been dropped from the schedule (and had its order cut), and against the tougher Thursday completion, The Blacklist now barely outrates the Chicago Fires of the network.
The Night Shift joined in on the disappointment, as its first post-The Voice airing didn’t even match its premiere in the Summer after America’s Got Talent. If you assume the usual ~0.5 boost from The Voice, then The Night Shift has instantly jumped to NBC’s worst rated returning drama.
(Keep in mind, it’s not like NBC is stretched thin from trying to program so many hours. Last Monday through Sunday, they aired 19 hours: 4 hours of The Voice, 2 hours of a Voice repeat, 4 hours of Dateline, and 1 hour of a Night Shift Repeat, for just 9 hours of original scripted programming – and these are the results they’re getting.)
So why am I dogpiling on NBC? Because as The CW showed us for years, sometimes the question isn’t how many hours the network would like to change, it is how many hours the network can afford to change (and promote). With Parenthood over and About a Boy unlikely to return, NBC is already an hour and a half ‘in the hole’ compared to Fall’s schedule, which means NBC may renew a couple options that aren’t clear successes:
If Undateable or (to a lesser extent) One Big Happy have any success post-The Voice, expect them to come back, just so NBC has some comedy to work with come next Fall.
If The Mysteries of Laura’s recent low ratings were just due to competition from the similarly old-skewing The Mentalist, don’t be shocked by a renewal, even if it gets dumped to Fridays or Sundays in Spring.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.