NBC scripted average through Nov. 29: 1.36
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Truth Be Told (F) (O)||DSW||0.63||0.46|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😦 😦||1.11||0.82|
|Undateable (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.77||0.57|
|Heroes Reborn (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.28||0.94|
|Grimm (F) (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98||0.72|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.63||1.20|
|The Blacklist||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.5||1.10|
|Chicago Med (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.0||1.47|
|Chicago PD (O)||Renewed||1.5||1.10|
|Chicago Fire (O)||Renewed||1.83||1.35|
As broadcast ratings have fallen over the past several years, numbers that would have brought instant cancellation in seasons past are now good enough to scrape by — or in some cases, build a solid series for several years.
Which brings us to “Grimm.” In its first three seasons, the show scored decent-for-Friday ratings in the mid-1s — which would have been deadly a decade prior (even on Fridays) but were just fine in the DVR and streaming era. Last season’s ratings faltered some (1.15 same-day average) but were still good enough.
This season there’s been some further erosion; “Grimm” is just under a 1.0 through its first four episodes. Yet that looks positively rosy compared to its lead-in (a combined 0.7 for “Undateable” and “Truth Be Told”) and is at least within sniffing distance of NBC’s scripted average.
It’s never great when a show goes under 1.0 for multiple weeks, even on Fridays, on one of the big four networks. But “Grimm,” which reaches the 100-episode mark later this season, seems likely to squeeze out another season on those modest numbers.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.