NBC network scripted average through Oct. 4 (two weeks): 1.74
|Program||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😦 😦||1.2||0.69|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.75||1.01|
|Heroes Reborn (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.8||1.06|
|The Blacklist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.8||1.06|
|Chicago PD (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.7||0.98|
|Blindspot||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.85||1.64|
Week 2 of the 2015-16 season brought a couple of NBC premieres — “The Blacklist” and “Chicago PD” — that did nothing to change those shows’ respective statuses. And then there’s “The Player.”
“The Blacklist’s” Thursday lead-out managed only a 1.0 in adults 18-49 for its second episode, putting it in real danger of being the first cancellation of the season. Even if it’s not the first to go, however, it’s not going to last with numbers like this.
As for “The Blacklist”: It was down a lot from its Season 2 premiere a year ago but pretty much in line with its Thursday numbers from the second half of last season. Its 1.8 is slightly above the network average.
“Chicago PD,” meanwhile, premiered just below NBC’s scripted average, but in line with its same-day ratings from last season. Which means there’s no reason to think it’s not a certain renewal.
Better to follow the Bear than be chased by him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.