NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 24 of the 2015-16 season forecasts what an upcoming show needs to earn a pickup.
NBC scripted average through March 6: 1.29
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Truth Be Told (F) (O)||Canceled||0.59||0.43|
|Heroes Reborn (O)||Canceled||1.21||0.88|
|You, Me and the Apocalypse||😥||0.77||0.60|
|Telenovela (O)||😦 😦||0.99||0.76|
|Undateable (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.77||0.60|
|Grimm (F) (O)||😐 😐 😐||0.92||0.71|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😐 😐 😐||1.12||0.87|
|Shades of Blue (O)||Renewed||1.23||0.95|
|Chicago PD (O)||Renewed||1.61||1.25|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||Renewed||1.69||1.31|
|Chicago Med (O)||Renewed||1.76||1.36|
|Chicago Fire (O)||Renewed||1.81||1.40|
NBC hasn’t aired half-hour comedies on Sunday nights since the 1997-98 season. So “The Carmichael Show” will enter basically uncharted territory when it premieres Sunday.
What, then, does the show need to do to be considered a success? The Bear’s gut feeling is that the bar isn’t overly high.
In the dumping ground of late summer, “The Carmichael Show’s” first season averaged a 1.0 in adults 18-49. That’s not bad considering its afterthought status at first.
NBC’s scripted average is currently hovering around 1.3. If “Carmichael” can match or better that during its spring run, it should be on track for renewal.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.