NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 28 of the 2015-16 season looks at the chart for a new series and figures out how to break the news gently that it may not have much more time.
NBC scripted average through April 3: 1.24
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Truth Be Told (F) (O)||Canceled||0.59||0.43|
|Heroes Reborn (O)||Canceled||1.21||0.88|
|You, Me and the Apocalypse||😥||0.69||0.56|
|Telenovela (O)||😦 😦||0.99||0.76|
|Undateable (F)||😦 😦||0.77||0.57|
|Heartbeat (O)||😦 😦||1.07||0.86|
|Grimm (F) (O)||😐 😐 😐||0.92||0.74|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😐 😐 😐||1.12||0.87|
|The Carmichael Show (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.16||0.94|
|Crowded (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.23||0.99|
|Shades of Blue (O)||Renewed||1.17||0.94|
|Chicago PD (O)||Renewed||1.61||1.30|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||Renewed||1.69||1.36|
|Chicago Med (O)||Renewed||1.77||1.43|
|Chicago Fire (O)||Renewed||1.8||1.45|
“Heartbeat” premiered to a semi-promising 1.4 rating following “The Voice.” If it could hold close to that number in its regular spot on Wednesdays, then it would have a decent chance of getting a second season.
It hasn’t held that number. Two straight weeks of sub-1.0 ratings move the show down from a tossup to a likely cancellation.
The benchmark for success is not terribly high at 8 on Wednesdays — “The Mysteries of Laura” averaged only a 1.12 in the timeslot earlier in the season. But “Heartbeat” is now below that and likely to keep sliding a little more each week.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.