NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 29 of the 2015-16 season considers the renewal chances for two comedies — one is looking good, and one could use some help before season’s end.
NBC scripted average through April 10: 1.23
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Truth Be Told (F) (O)||Canceled||0.59||0.43|
|Heroes Reborn (O)||Canceled||1.21||0.88|
|You, Me and the Apocalypse||😥||0.69||0.56|
|Telenovela (O)||😦 😦||0.99||0.76|
|Undateable (F)||😦 😦||0.77||0.57|
|Heartbeat (O)||😦 😦||1.07||0.87|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😐 😐 😐||1.12||0.87|
|The Carmichael Show (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.13||0.92|
|Crowded (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.1||0.89|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Renewed||0.92||0.75|
|Shades of Blue (O)||Renewed||1.17||0.94|
|Chicago PD (O)||Renewed||1.61||1.31|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||Renewed||1.69||1.37|
|Chicago Med (O)||Renewed||1.77||1.44|
|Chicago Fire (O)||Renewed||1.8||1.46|
Here’s a tale of two shows. They have nearly identical ratings. Both are produced in-house by their network’s sister studio. Yet one is likely to be renewed while the other is a tossup. How come?
Because “The Carmichael Show” feels more on brand than “Crowded” for NBC, it’s that much closer to an afterlife deal thanks to its short summer run last year, and it has performed a little better since both shows settled into Sundays.
Granted, “Carmichael” has a lead-in advantage airing after “Little Big Shots.” And “Crowded” still has a (smaller) chance at renewal. But if NBC makes a choice between the two, it’s likely going to be “Carmichael” over “Crowded.”
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.