NBC scripted average through Oct. 18: 1.43
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Truth Be Told||😥||0.7||0.49|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😦 😦||1.13||0.79|
|Undateable (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.8||0.59|
|Heroes Reborn (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.48||1.03|
|The Blacklist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.57||1.1|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.65||1.15|
|Chicago PD (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.57||1.1|
|Chicago Fire (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.8||1.26|
|Blindspot||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.65||1.85|
So, yes, ratings expectations on Friday nights are not as high as those on other nights. But when a show pulls the lowest in-season premiere rating in a network’s history, it’s hard to spin that, even on a Friday.
So it is with “Truth Be Told,” which premiered to a meager 0.7 rating in adults 18-49. Best anyone can tell, it’s the worst in-season opening for a new show since 18-49 measurements started in the late 1980s. Cry face, indeed.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, “Chicago Fire” opens in sure-bet territory. Its premiere ratings were down quite a bit from last season, but relative to the rest of NBC’s scripted shows, it’s sitting pretty.
The statuses of the network’s other shows remain the same, although “Heroes Reborn” is skating close to becoming a tossup after falling to a 1.1 rating last week.
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.