NBC scripted average through Nov. 1: 1.34
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Truth Be Told (F) (O)||DSW||0.67||0.50|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😦 😦||1.1||0.82|
|Undateable (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.78||0.58|
|Heroes Reborn (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.33||0.99|
|Grimm (F) (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.1||0.82|
|The Blacklist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.52||1.13|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.62||1.21|
|Chicago PD (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.52||1.13|
|Chicago Fire (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.77||1.32|
|Blindspot||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.47||1.84|
“Heroes Reborn” started the season with a 2.0 rating in adults 18-49, a decent number in the current broadcast environment. Its performance since then has been … not good.
After holding at 1.1 in the two prior weeks, and barely keeping likely renewal status in the index, the show dipped to 1.0 last week. It’s now down to a tossup, and headed in the wrong direction.
While it’s still above the NBC average — no great feat, that — it’s headed in the wrong direction. “Reborn” was sold as a limited series, so NBC has a face-saving out if it swings the ax — which is looking increasingly likely.
Speaking of swinging axes, the Renew/Cancel Index had added a new category, Dead Show Walking. It’s for shows, like “Truth Be Told” and “The Player,” that have had their orders cut and are merely playing out the string until they’re swept off the air. You’ll see it represented by the initials “DSW” in the index.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.