NBC scripted average through Nov. 8: 1.32
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Truth Be Told (F) (O)||DSW||0.65||0.49|
|The Mysteries of Laura||😦 😦||1.11||0.84|
|Undateable (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.76||0.58|
|Heroes Reborn (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.33||1.01|
|Grimm (F) (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.05||0.80|
|The Blacklist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.5||1.14|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.6||1.21|
|Chicago PD (O)||Renewed||1.5||1.14|
|Chicago Fire (O)||Renewed||1.78||1.35|
NBC made some news Monday by picking up “Blindspot,” “Chicago Fire” and “Chicago PD” for the 2016-17 season. The timing was a bit of a surprise — networks usually save early renewals for the winter months — but all three shows were already locks to return.
What that leaves is a couple other likely renewals in “The Blacklist” and “Grimm”; another show (“SVU”) whose fate may depend on budget and contract talks as much as ratings; and a big mess filling four hours of the schedule.
“Sunday Night Football” and “The Voice” make NBC’s overall ratings look pretty this time of year, but the network’s scripted output is not particularly strong at the moment — its has the lowest scripted average of any of the Big 4 nets, and not by a small margin. All the early pickups in the world won’t solve that.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.