Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-16, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Parenthood||😐 😐 😐||0.90|
|The Cape||😐 😐 😐||1.04|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.08|
|Chuck||😐 😐 😐|
|Community||😐 😐 😐|
|Law & Order: LA||😐 😐 😐|
|Harry’s Law||😐 😐 😐|
After a not too shabby (for NBC) 2.6 rating for The Cape’s double episode premiere, the show dropped to just a 1.8 rating in its second episode. It’s now no better than a “toss up” for renewal.
While, sadly for NBC, a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating is likely to be above average for its scripted shows this spring, the premiere ratings for Harry’s Law are for just one episode. Fans should wait for two or three episodes before getting their hopes up (just ask The Cape fans).
Chuck’s return was within its ratings range all season, maintaining it as a “toss up” for renewal.
Parenthood remains a “toss up” as well, at least until more NBC shows have their spring premieres.
The news that Law & Order: LA was being retooled and its return to NBC’s schedule delayed is not a positive sign.
While the numbers in the table above include results through Sunday, Jan 16, I’ve taken into account Monday night’s (1/17) preliminary ratings in the status and post text, otherwise it would have been another week of “pending” for most of the NBC shows.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.