Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewNbcShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 2, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|30 Rock||final season||0.68|
|Up All Night||😥 😥||0.71|
|Guys With Kids||😥 😥||0.76|
|Parks & Recreation||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
|Chicago Fire||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.94|
|Law & Order: SVU||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|The New Normal||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.00|
|The Office||final season||1.15|
Whitney was downgraded to “likely to be canceled” last week, but Chicago Fire usurped the headline. Now her time in the headline has come!
With the ratings for Chicago Fire and Law & Order:SVU now effectively converged, I can’t justify different predictions for them. Since their ratings (except for last week) have had them at or above the NBC scripted average each week, so they’re both likely to be renewed. Of course, an old show like L&O:SVU can have the ratings for renewal, but its costs might drive it into being canceled. If the spring ratings don’t paint a clearer picture, I’ll wonder about that later.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.