This week’s season premieres of the CW’s Ringer, 90210, The Secret Circle, and Vampire Diaries, plus NBC’s premieres of Parenthood and Up All Night can mean only one thing…

The Renew / Cancel Index returns Tuesday September 20! (with posts for NBC & CW only, five network posts begin Sept. 27)

A boon* to fans not wanting to get invested in shows destined for the dustbin, the Renew / Cancel Index predicts the renewal and cancellation prospects for every primetime scripted show on the English broadcast networks. (*and a bane to fans wishing to ignore reality)

The Index divides the new episode adults 18-49 average rating for each scripted show by its network’s overall new show scripted adults 18-49 ratings average.

This season the Index will be New & Improved!

  1. No show within a season (~22 episodes) of syndication (~88 total episodes) at the end of the current season will ever drop below a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation.
  2. When a show ends its run on a network, I will freeze its Index at the number in its final week. That’s to prevent a show’s Index from changing after it ends its run.
  3. Expanding the Index range of the “toss up” zone (where renewal or cancellation could go either way) from 0.80-0.90 to 0.75-0.90.
One thing that was considered, and tested, but will not be changed in this year’s Index is averaging 30 minute sitcoms and one hour dramas separately for each network. While that seems logical, it wouldn’t have been a clear cut improvement, so I’m passing on it.

These are the new *approximate* Index ranges and their default predictions:

  • Index of 0.90 and above – near certain renewal (over 0.70 for Friday (F) shows)
  • Index of 0.75-0.90 – a “toss up”, could go either way, but higher numbers are better (0.55-0.70 for Friday (F) shows)
  • Index of 0.75 and below – near certain cancellation (below 0.55 for Friday (F) shows)

The Renew / Cancel Index again had an excellent record in 2010-11 with a few notable exceptions:

  • Fringe, Chuck – see improvement #1 above.
  • Happy Endings, American Dad, The Good Wife – see improvement #3 above.
  • $#*! My Dad Says  – CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom to make room for new sitcoms, regardless of ratings.
  • Mr. Sunshine, Human Target, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior – shows in an advantaged timeslot that deliver mediocre ratings are in danger even with an Index above 0.90. Retentionistas hurrah!

Here’s how the Renew / Cancel Index performed for the 2010-11 season:

Program Network Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Good Guys (F) Fox cancelled 0.28
Chaos (F) CBS cancelled 0.37
The Whole Truth ABC cancelled 0.42
Friday Night Lights NBC final season 0.43
Lone Star Fox cancelled 0.44
My Generation ABC cancelled 0.47
The Defenders (F) CBS cancelled 0.47
Detroit 1-8-7 ABC cancelled 0.49
The Paul Reiser Show NBC cancelled 0.52
Medium (F) CBS cancelled 0.53
The Defenders (Wed only) CBS cancelled 0.56
Chase NBC cancelled 0.57
Traffic Light Fox cancelled 0.57
Fringe (F) Fox renewed 0.58
Outlaw (F) NBC cancelled 0.60
Running Wilde Fox cancelled 0.61
Blue Bloods (F) CBS renewed 0.61
No Ordinary Family ABC cancelled 0.62
Undercovers NBC cancelled 0.63
CSI:NY (F) CBS renewed 0.64
The Event NBC cancelled 0.64
Law & Order: LA NBC cancelled 0.65
Off The Map ABC cancelled 0.70
Hellcats CW cancelled 0.71
Perfect Couples NBC cancelled 0.74
Happy Endings ABC renewed 0.75
American Dad Fox renewed 0.75
The Chicago Code Fox cancelled 0.75
Lie To Me Fox cancelled 0.76
V ABC cancelled 0.78
The Good Wife CBS renewed 0.79
Brothers & Sisters ABC cancelled 0.79
Better With You ABC cancelled 0.80
The Cape NBC cancelled 0.80
Life Unexpected CW cancelled 0.81
Outsourced NBC cancelled 0.82
Chuck NBC renewed 0.83
Mad Love CBS cancelled 0.85
CSI: Miami CBS renewed 0.85
Gossip Girl CW renewed 0.86
Human Target Fox cancelled 0.87
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior CBS cancelled 0.88
Community NBC renewed 0.89
One Tree Hill CW renewed 0.89
Mr. Sunshine ABC cancelled 0.91
Raising Hope Fox renewed 0.91
Nikita CW renewed 0.92
90210 CW renewed 0.92
Bob’s Burgers Fox renewed 0.92
Harry’s Law NBC renewed 0.92
Breaking In Fox renewed 0.96
The Cleveland Show Fox renewed 0.96
Cougar Town ABC renewed 0.96
Body Of Proof ABC renewed 0.97
The Middle ABC renewed 0.98
Rules of Engagement CBS renewed 1.00
$#*! My Dad Says CBS cancelled 1.00
Hawaii Five-0 CBS renewed 1.01
Private Practice ABC renewed 1.01
CSI CBS renewed 1.04
The Mentalist CBS renewed 1.05
Parenthood NBC renewed 1.07
Supernatural (F) CW renewed 1.09
30 Rock NBC renewed 1.12
Smallville (F) CW final season 1.12
Mike & Molly CBS renewed 1.13
The Simpsons Fox renewed 1.14
Castle ABC renewed 1.15
How I Met Your Mother CBS renewed 1.20
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS renewed 1.24
Criminal Minds CBS renewed 1.24
Parks & Recreation NBC renewed 1.25
Desperate Housewives ABC renewed 1.28
Bones Fox renewed 1.29
Law & Order: SVU NBC renewed 1.32
Family Guy Fox renewed 1.33
House Fox renewed 1.37
Big Bang Theory CBS renewed 1.39
NCIS CBS renewed 1.47
Vampire Diaries CW renewed 1.55
Glee Fox renewed 1.59
Grey’s Anatomy ABC renewed 1.62
Two And A Half Men CBS renewed 1.66
Modern Family ABC renewed 1.79
The Office NBC renewed 1.90

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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