With the networks having already made most of their renewal and cancellation decisions for the 2018-19 season, the Bear has managed to fill his belly with a total of 19 canceled shows this season, and he thinks he has a good shot at chowing down on a few more by the time all things are said and done too.
But now, like always, it’s time for the Bear to look back and see how he did with his predictions this season.
As per usual, the Bear did pretty well this year. As of May 23, the Bear correctly predicted the fates for 74 of 87 scripted shows this season (excluding those that were renewed ahead of the season and with pre-announced final runs). Nine shows were misses, while four were called tossups when the networks’ decisions were made.
Currently, NBC’s “Abby’s,” “A.P. Bio,” “The Enemy Within,” and “The Village” are still hanging in limbo, but all are predicted to be likely cancellations. CBS has yet to make decisions for both “The Code” and “Ransom” as well, with the former’s chances at a second season looking increasingly unlikely, while the latter remains a constant tossup.
As of right now, that puts the Bear’s winning percentage for this season currently at .851, down just slightly from his .888 percentage last season.
Here’s the network-by-network breakdown.
ABC: 18 right, 2 wrong, 1 tossup
Best call: Probably “The Rookie,” which the Bear had considered a tossup or likely cancellation throughout most of the fall, but which started to look better and better in the spring. Its numbers were consistent enough for the Bear to start considering it a likely renewal, and he ended up being right in doing so.
Misses: Arguably the Bear’s biggest surprise of the season came with the cancellation of “Speechless,” which had admittedly performed poorly this season, but the Bear still thought it would be saved by the third season rule and by becoming Disney-owned after the FOX merger. Instead, “Speechless” got the axe this year, while “Single Parents” was saved, despite the Bear’s prediction that it’d be done after just one season.
CBS: 19 right, 1 wrong, 2 tossup, 2 TBD
Best call: “God Friended Me” was only a modest ratings performer for CBS, but the Bear was right to stick to his initial renewal prediction for the freshman drama. “Fam,” meanwhile, started out in okay position, before falling into increasingly uncertain territory by the end of its first season. The Bear went out on a bit of a limb calling it a likely cancellation, but it turned out to be the right call.
Miss: “Life in Pieces” returned with pretty good ratings in the spring, and the Bear thought things were looking good for the veteran comedy. Unfortunately, the fourth-season title met its end this year, and was the Bear’s only incorrect CBS prediction of the season.
FOX: 13 right, 2 wrong
Best calls: “The Orville” was a tossup throughout most of its season. But in the end, despite putting up only marginal ratings, the Bear thought Seth MacFarlane’s clout at FOX and the show receiving an advantageous early California tax credit for a third season would be enough to get it renewed.
Misses: The Bear had thought that “Star” and “The Cool Kids,” both of which put up modest (if not impressive) ratings this year, had good shots at being renewed. They turned out to be his only two incorrect FOX predictions this season, as “Star” was canceled after three seasons, and “The Cool Kids” ended up being one-and-done.
NBC: 12 right, 2 wrong, 1 tossup, 4 TBD
Best call: The Bear felt confident about most of his NBC predictions this year, but his best call was probably “Manifest.” The series experienced a severe ratings decline throughout its first season, but the Bear still believed it’d be back for at least a second year, and lo and behold, the Bear was right yet again.
Misses: The Bear had thought that both “Good Girls” and “Blindspot,” two of NBC’s lowest performers of the season, were likely cancellations this year. Instead, “Good Girls” benefitted yet again from its Netflix streaming deal, and “Blindspot” was renewed for a final season.
The CW: 11 right, 2 wrong
Best calls: Both “Charmed” and “Roswell, New Mexico” suffered from some notable ratings declines throughout their first seasons, but the Bear kept them as likely renewals all year. A smart choice in the end.
Misses: Freshman dramas, “In the Dark” and “All American,” seemed like low ratings performers even by the CW’s standards. Instead, the CW renewed both shows, along with every single one of their other freshman and veteran dramas, with the exception of those that were already announced to be airing their final seasons.
The Bear is headed into hibernation for the summer, but will still be around to take note whenever the few shows still in limbo have their fates decided in the coming weeks. Apart from that though, the Bear will be seeing you all again in September.