The CW network scripted average through Oct. 11: 0.77
|Program||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Reign (F)||😦 😦||0.3||0.39|
|The Vampire Diaries||😐 😐 😐||0.6||0.78|
|iZombie||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.7||0.91|
|Supernatural||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.9||1.17|
|The Originals||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||0.4||0.52|
|Arrow||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.1||1.43|
|The Flash||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.4||1.82|
The CW kicked off 2015-16 with its top-rated show from last season, “The Flash,” claiming that spot again. And also with one of its lowest performers, “Reign,” claiming that dubious spot.
“Reign” scored a 0.3 in adults 18-49 — which was not that far below its average last season. Even with that caveat, however, it’s still way below the network average.
So is “The Originals,” which would normally be a cause for concern. But since it’s in its third full season, and shows with three full seasons almost always get a fourth, it’s staying in the happy place. Lead-in “The Vampire Diaries” may not be so lucky — history hasn’t always been kind to shows that lose their lead actress or actor.
“Flash’s” lead-out, “iZombie,” didn’t retain especially well, but it’s solid on the Index and in a pretty good spot for now.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are owned either by Warner Bros. or CBS, so the (O) designation (see below) is unnecessary.
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.