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The CW network scripted average through Oct. 11: 0.77

Program Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Reign (F) 😦 😦 0.3 0.39
The Vampire Diaries 😐 😐 😐 0.6 0.78
iZombie 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.7 0.91
Supernatural 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.9 1.17
The Originals 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 0.4 0.52
Arrow 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 1.1 1.43
The Flash 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 1.4 1.82

 

The CW kicked off 2015-16 with its top-rated show from last season, “The Flash,” claiming that spot again. And also with one of its lowest performers, “Reign,” claiming that dubious spot.

“Reign” scored a 0.3 in adults 18-49 — which was not that far below its average last season. Even with that caveat, however, it’s still way below the network average.

So is “The Originals,” which would normally be a cause for concern. But since it’s in its third full season, and shows with three full seasons almost always get a fourth, it’s staying in the happy place. Lead-in “The Vampire Diaries” may not be so lucky — history hasn’t always been kind to shows that lose their lead actress or actor.

“Flash’s” lead-out, “iZombie,” didn’t retain especially well, but it’s solid on the Index and in a pretty good spot for now.

Note: All of The CW’s shows are owned either by Warner Bros. or CBS, so the (O) designation (see below) is unnecessary.

Key:

😥 sure bet to be canceled by May 2016
😦 😦 likely to be canceled by May 2016
😐 😐 😐 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 likely to be renewed by May 2016
😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 sure bet to be renewed by May 2016


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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