The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 31 of the 2015-16 season finally get back into the prediction game, which the renewal-happy network has made pretty easy.
The CW scripted average through April 24: 0.61
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Containment||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.5||0.82|
|Jane the Virgin||Renewed||0.37||0.61|
|The Vampire Diaries (F)||Renewed||0.48||0.79|
|Legends of Tomorrow||Renewed||0.84||1.38|
|The Originals (F)||Renewed||0.4||0.66|
“Containment” premiered to a 0.5 rating in adults 18-49 last week. That puts it squarely in the middle of The CW pack.
Normally, a show with that profile would earn a tossup rating from the Bear after one episode. But this is The CW, which has embraced the nothing-ever-really-dies ethos of present-day TV and has renewed every scripted show it has thus far this season. So why make an exception for “Containment”?
Things can change depending on how the show holds up in the next few weeks, but for now “Containment” is in safe territory — that territory being the network where it airs.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.