The CW scripted average through Oct. 18: 0.66
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Reign (F)||😦 😦||0.3||0.45|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||😐 😐 😐||0.3||0.45|
|Jane the Virgin||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.4||0.61|
|iZombie||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.6||0.91|
|The Vampire Diaries||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.6||0.91|
|Supernatural||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.85||1.29|
|The Originals||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||0.45||0.68|
|Arrow||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.05||1.59|
|The Flash||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.4||2.12|
“Jane the Virgin” began its second season with a 0.4 rating among adults 18-49, down from both its season premiere in 2014 and its Season 1 finale. It should still be safe.
Why? The CW will likely give as much slack as possible to the only show it has that’s ever received any major awards attention. All the trophies in the world won’t save it if ratings nosedive, but if it stays within sight of its numbers from last season, and on a night where The CW has usually struggled, it will be fine.
“Jane’s” Monday companion, “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend,” opens in tossup territory after a modest premiere. “iZombie” stays in safe territory — but needs to stabilize after a 0.2 drop — while “The Vampire Diaries” is feeling a little safer after matching its season premiere rating in episode 2. (“The Originals” was up for episode 2, and it remains a sure bet thanks to the third-season rule.)
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners Warner Bros. or CBS, so the (O) designation (see below) is unnecessary.
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.