The CW scripted average through Oct. 25: 0.63
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Reign (F)||😦 😦||0.27||0.43|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||😐 😐 😐||0.3||0.48|
|iZombie||😐 😐 😐||0.57||0.90|
|Jane the Virgin||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.4||0.63|
|The Vampire Diaries||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.57||0.90|
|Supernatural||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.77||1.22|
|The Originals||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||0.43||0.68|
|Arrow||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1||1.59|
|The Flash||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.4||2.22|
Look up above at the chart and you’ll see “iZombie” and “The Vampire Diaries” with identical 18-49 ratings after their first two episodes of the season, and thus identical Renew/Cancel numbers.
What they don’t have right now is the same chance of returning next season. “The Vampire Diaries” is a legacy pick at this point. It’s long since past being the top show at The CW, but it’s performing OK in the early going, and that could be enough to squeeze out one more season.
“iZombie,” on the other hand, is only 15 episodes into its life and has an order for only 13 episodes so far. That translates to less, ahem, afterlife potential as it will take longer to get to the 80 or so episodes that make for attractive syndication and streaming deals. It’s a tossup for now, while “TVD” is more likely to be renewed.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners Warner Bros. or CBS, so the (O) designation (see below) is unnecessary.
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.