This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post containing unscripted shows click here.  For the Renew/Cancel Indexes for the other networks click these links:

Now that Sunday Night Football is done, NBC’s average for adults 18-49 is dropping, and that makes many of its shows look like candidates to be renewed and not cancelled. Chuck being renewed is looking more and more certain. And while Law & Order could be renewed on history alone (20th season!), its numbers are looking better relative to the trainwreck that is NBC. Same with Kath & Kim. I’d have given it little hope of being renewed earlier, but NBC’s a beggar, not a chooser. Another few weeks and those last 2 will be in the green.

Of course, NBC’s adults 18-49 average will get a huge boost because of the Super Bowl this Sunday. I will do my best to remove that effect entirely from the season to date average, so it doesn’t skew our Index results.

While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.

PROGRAM Net  STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index Status
CRUSOE NBC  1,204  3,480 0.35 finishing Sat
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS* NBC  1,931  3,480 0.55  
LIPSTICK JUNGLE NBC  1,969  3,480 0.57 cancelled
KNIGHT RIDER NBC  2,535  3,480 0.73  
LIFE – WED (1) NBC  2,553  3,480 0.73  
MY OWN WORST ENEMY NBC  2,636  3,480 0.76 cancelled
KATH & KIM NBC  3,022  3,480 0.87  
LAW AND ORDER NBC  3,056  3,480 0.88  
CHUCK NBC  3,348  3,480 0.96  
MY NAME IS EARL NBC  3,387  3,480 0.97  
E.R. NBC  4,351  3,480 1.25 final season
30 ROCK NBC  4,398  3,480 1.26  
LAW AND ORDER:SVU NBC  4,570  3,480 1.31  
HEROES NBC  5,343  3,480 1.54  
OFFICE NBC  5,550  3,480 1.59  

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.

*Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I’m indicating renewal for them.

(1) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.

How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

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Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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