Advertising Age seemed a little late with this year’s estimated 30 second spot costs, and reports that Sunday Night Football was still the most expensive primetime real estate in the fall (est $339, 700 per 30 seconds spot) were reported over a month ago.

Now there are estimates on the rest, but be warned.  It seems these estimates were largely gathered from the upfronts (and other sources) and they don’t appear to have been adjusted based on early results.  They have Two and a Half Men making more than The Big Bang Theory (even though TBBT has outperformed it in terms of adults 18-49 ratings) and my guess is they have not adjusted for the beast that is NCIS.

Ad Age calculated ad prices for each show by using the upfront prices agreed to by as many as seven different media-buying agencies and other sources. According to our survey, TV prices seem to be on the decline. In the 2008-2009 season, NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” commanded an average of $434,792 for a 30-second commercial, compared with this season’s average of $339,700. ABC’s “Grey’s” brought in an average of $326,685, compared with this season’s $240,462.

As you can see, from the above a lot of shows took hits this year versus last.   Check out Advertising Age’s grid for all shows (including different rates for different nights of Leno that range from $49,000 to $66,000).

Does The Forgotten really make a third more than Leno, even with sometimes lower ratings just because it is scripted?  Count on that answer being no and that just being a result of pre-season estimates that haven’t been adjusted.

At least going into the season, Flashforward was the most expensive new series with estimates of more than $175,000.  That’s much higher than NCIS: Los Angeles which has the better ratings of the two lately.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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